Pavement Politics

I am literally just back from a pretty exhuasting couple of hours on the doorsteps around Christchurch Road.  Amazingly the cloud seems to have kept people indoors and there were plenty of people to chat to about their issues.  One thing that came through loud and clear was the failure of the government to tackle anti-social behaviour; it’s strange that as a SNAP Chairman in Bowthorpe and Costessey I see the work that goes on behind the scenes and the amount of investment the police are getting.  Yet residents don’t feel as if they are being supported and think that yobs are running the streets.  Note to Labour: maybe endless investment isn’t working here – is there something we are missing?  Employment, education, family breakdown?  Also there was a strong feeling against Labour’s re-organisation in the NHS and the creation of polyclinics.  I spoke to 3 retired nurses all of whom were shock by the plans.  One (blush!) even came to watch Niki George and myself pass a motion against the plans in council last month.

Generally people felt that Brown’s time was up.  Again and again they asked when the election was; and the truth is that both he and I dont know!  The feeling od the doorsteps was positive – we got 2 new members and residents saying that they hadn’t voted Tory in years but were going to next time.  Perhaps thats why Brown isn’t so keen on the election?

Rescue Pack!

Emily’s new toy is a singing daglo orange plastic bag which belts out a samba tune. I do hope the batteries run out, but no signs of that yet.

Yesterday morning a big campaign group went out around the University to do some survey canvassing, and the views of people can be summed up in two words – transport and economy.

There was a lot of anger locally about the speeding traffic down some of the main roads (and the council response to this) but also the state of the roads and pavements. There are some atrocious cracks and holes that need urgent attention. However the grass verges are destroyed and the areas where 2 buses are forced to pass leave holes like a canoe run in the road where one bus has to mount the verge to get pass the other. Sadly, again, little seems to be done to solve these issues and residents feel that they are “on their own” – once again. They seemed genuinely pleased to be able to explain their issues to the Conservatives and there is a feeling that they have been let down.

However the overwhelming majority of people were very worried about their financial situation in the coming months and years. I met businessmen who were having to lay off staff, builders without work because of the slowdown of the housing market and a family who are being forced to cut down on buying food to make ends meet. And the blame for this was all laid squarely at the feet of the Prime Minister (interestingly not the Chancellor – most people think this all has its legacy in Brown’s days at the treasury).

Overall a lot of people were very disengaged with the whole political process. They felt very much the choice was between the Conservatives and Labour; we didn’t find a single open LibDem voter in a ward they used to hold with a sizeable majority. People are moving away from Clarke and Labour but haven’t yet found their way to the Conservatives in this part of Norwich. It’s our job to give them a reason to do so.

Today I am speaking at a public meeting at the Greenstock Festival at Heigham Park; I do hope that despite the weather you make it!

Thinking Again

Every now and again, no matter how strongly you feel about something in politics, you have a moment where you think again.

I have been an Obama fan for a long, long time and have always felt that he has the charisma and – dare I say it – moral compass that America needs. Clearly its easy for a Brit to sit back and have such thoughts about a country I won’t have to live in, but I put aside worries regarding some policy stances and put the man ahead of his party. I don’t much like the Democrats – and particularly hate the Clintons (both in office and running for nomination) – but I felt that he represented something good in the party and would be the change that the US needs. I’m sure that’s how a lot of people think about Cameron. I was caught up in Obama-mania; I don’t dislike McCain, but Obama is on the ballot. And then, he chose Joe Biden as his running mate.

We know why he was chosen; a foreign affairs expert with plenty of experience and a sop to the Democrat core vote. However, I am puzzled why the Obama team built up such expectation given the sfae nature of this candidate.

I can also forget the fact that Biden said he wouldn’t be considered for VP, and I can also push to the back of my mind the attacks he made on Obama and the faint praise he has given for McCain. I can also blank out the plagurism of a Kinnock speech! And then, of course, he voted for the war…

But in the same way that I have supported Obama on a “kind of feeling”; I have that same feeling against Biden. He isn’t the change candidate. He’s the long serving Senator for Delaware and represents exactly the kind of politican that has put America in the position it is now. He’s the pseduo-Clinton candidate, the obvious, mainstream, steady-as-she-goes candidate. He doesn’t excite me, he isn’t passionate about the future and doesn’t suggest change.

Biden has put me off the Dmeocratic ticket; and McCain is making the running in the campaign. For the first time, I think Obama could just lose this.

Pragmatic, useful … and bound to be stolen by the government

Clegg’s rather badly thought out energy policy yesterday has already been trumped by the rather more practical and down to earth plans launched today by Shadow Chancellor George Osbourne on introducing energy discount cards. The Tory plans will help around 4,000,000 people with energy bills and largely those on the bottom of the income scale. The Citizens Advise Bureau thinks its brilliant and it’ll be run through the Post Office, helping to keep branches open. And after all, why should people who don’t pay by DD or have a bank account have to then pay more for their energy?

Spot the difference; Clegg spouts some “finger in the wind” policy on energy in which they admit to having not done all the research and the numbers don’t add up. Cameron’s Conservatives launch a plan which is practical, pragmatic, helps people and tackles one of the major issues facing families.

So what now? Well, I wouldn’t mind betting this idea now forms part of the government’s autumn economic fightback…

It must be tough in the Clegg household

Here he goes again … Nick Clegg was apparently the name with the presentational skills to save the LibDems. And today he uses an interview in The Independent to convince people he feels their pain in the credit crunch. And how does he do this? Well, by claiming his mortgage repayments have soared (on his second £1.3m home in ultra-fashionable Putney) and by saying he’s had to stop shopping at Ocado (the on-line version of Waitrose) and go to Sainsburys instead. Gosh it must be tough for him on just his MPs salery (oh, and his wife’s full time job as a lawyer). Come off it!

This isn’t feleing the pain of the credit crunch, this is a very wealthy man who’s been slightly inconvenienced by it all. So, why say anything at all?

I’m pretty sure no political leader is that impacted – they’re not losing their homes, or turning off the heating or not buying food for their family. But so desperate is Clegg for any publicity that he’s willing to say anything. This may have been a good idea in the eyes of the LibDem spin doctors but I imagine a lot of people who have really felt the crunch will be very angry that their plight is the equivalent to having to shop at Sainsburys rather than Waitrose.

My 1,000th Post

According to the level little thing of the Blogger Dashboard this is my 1,000th blog post; quite an achievement really when you consider how many blogs, and how many really good blogs, lay dormant.

I started this blog back in 2004 – and in the years since then I have has 2 children, been selected as a PPC twice, fought a general election, lost out for a council seat by 14 votes, seen my year group achieve outstanding exam results, been elected to Norwich City Council as the first Conservative from Norwich South for a generation, moved house & made some fantastic friends along the way.

My first post on ths blog read:
This is the first posting on my new weblog (or Blog!) The aim is to keep you up to date with what I’ve been up to in my campaign in Bowthorpe, the world of education and my views on political issues, both Norwich related and national. Do feel free to post your own comments at any time!

Hardly taxing aspirations but the fact that 4 years on I am still doing it does make me feel good; and hopefully my work has been appreciated. And a big thank you to everyone who has commented on stories. One blog post on the failures of educational inclusion still gets the odd comment now despite being years old; its that kind of thing that keeps us “blogging minnows” going!

Campaigning in Norwich

Here is a quick round up of some of the stories that you may have missed since the summer holidays began, 4 weeks ago:

Backing a local football club to get a permenant home ground – here

Warning against bus fare increases and urging First not to scrap the 26/27 link to the West of the City – here – and speaking up for UEA students on this issue here

Supporting Evening News plans for a directly election Mayor for Norwich – here

Working with families to combat anti-social behaviour – here

Tackling crime in the suburbs – here

Opposing Labour’s Post Office closures and urging a review of Castle Mall PO – here

Warning that “restorative justice” could be to massage crime figures down – here

Backing NHS staff in their campaign against Polyclinics – here

Supporting residents in their fight against a new eco-building in a Victorian building area – here

Conservative harden position against unitary

When City Hall originally bid for unitary status, a lot of Conservatives out there in the yonder didn’t take the threat seriously – generally because it was, and still is, simply ridiculous that the areas worst performing council should apply more more powers. A lot of such Tories thus stuck their heads in the sand and hoped that the treasury / boundary commission / government would do their jobs for them and kill the unitary bird stone dead. I have to say that I believe the stalled start for the anti-unitary campaigners is one of the reasons why this has got as far as it has. Anyway …

Today I read in the local press that David Cameron has declared that if unitary has not passed before a general election then the party will scrap it altogether. (Read here, and note that the comments are attributed to Shadow Local Government Minister Bob Neill rather than Cameron himself, but hey-ho). This is significant because it is the first time that the party has come out specifically against the plans in this way. At heart I’m sure a lot of Tories are pro-unitary, but most of us don’t want to pay £100m for the priviledge.

This move by Cameron / Neill will worry Labour – they know their only chance of stopping the “One County” bid is via flame-haired Communities Secretary Hazel Blears blocking it, but many Tories now know the only chance to block unitary full stop is by winning that general election.

I hope that all these anti-unitary Tory Councillors sitting on their big fat majorities remember this and get campaigning in key Norfolk marginals to ensure we win those seats then – wouldn’t it be ironic if they won by a country mile in their own seats only for us not to win the key seats and for Labour’s bonkers plans to progress.

So given all this, the continued spending of taxpayers cash makes my blood boil. Too much has been wasted by all sides on this now; Labour will be praying for this to move quickly, the Tories will try and block and then pray for that election. All this time, we all know who the biggest losers are.

Council tax payers.

Who has most to worry about from the 09 County elections?

A prolific reader of my blog, Comrade, left a short but interesting comment on my last post. He, once a Labour councillor left to join the LibDems, urged us to “bring on” the county elections. It made me think about who had most to gain, or lose, from that poll.

First thing to note is that it is not likely to be on the same day as a General Election and thus a much lower turnout may hit some majorities that were previously very high. And also being on the same day as the Euro elections may bring the right-wing vote out in much greater force. However, the statistics show some worries for all the parties.

In terms of marginal seats (those with a majority of less than 5%), the Tories hold 8 (out of 46), Labour have 5 (out of 22) and the LibDems have 6 (out of 14) – hence nearly half of the LibDem county group are vulnerable on quite small swings. Melton Constable has a LibDem majority of 0.02% (yes, a single vote) and the Tories in North Norfolk will be gunning for electoral revenge there. Kings Lynn South is held by the LibDems by 0.3% and East Depwade by 0.4% – both in areas with big swings back to the Tories in recent years. Clavering had a LibDem majority of 3% but the Tories won that back in a by-election last year so it may be difficult to hold. I would imagine at this stage that all four seats would be very difficult for them to hold. The LibDems also have a 0.6% majority in Aylsham (but a much better majority at the recent by-election) and a 2% lead in Cromer and both would be vulnerable to a Cameron surge. If the Tories do very well on polling day then Reepham (LibDem maj 7%) could also be at risk. Other LibDem seats should fare better – despite a fairly low 9% majority in Fakenham, the party are odds on to hold it. Their 22% majority in Eaton will look more vulnerable given the strides made by the Tories at City level, and a similar 22% majority in Thorpe Hamlet – their second safest seat – is under threat from the rampant Norwich Green Party who took the identical ward by 501 votes at City level.

Labour’s urban outposts in Norfolk will face the test of a resurgant Tory Party next year as well. Great Yarmouth will see some pretty close fights – the semi-rural Lothingland Division has a Labour majority of just 0.5% for example. Thetford East (Labour maj 0.7%), Dereham South (Labour maj 3%), Caister (Labour maj 5%) and Gaywood North & Central (Labour maj 3%) would all become Tory seats based upon district results, let alone the opinion polls. And the news becomes worse for Labour – their 6% majority in Sprowston and 8% lead in Gaywood South (Kings Lynn) would currently both be wiped out. Breydon in Great Yarmouth had a Labour lead of 15% in 2005 and will certainly be top of the Great Yarmouth Tories hitlist, especially if Brandon Lewis is to be their next MP. It may even get worse than that, because a lot of very, very safe Labour seats in Norwich will also come into play on a low turnout. A 25% lead in Bowthorpe and a 22% lead in Catton Grove may also disappear if recent City elections are repeated and gains could be made by the Tories. Labour also hold seats in Lakenham, Mancroft and Wensum where the LibDems and Greens have since made City gains. Labour’s county group could easily be reduced from 22 to 15 on a small swing back to the Tories and down to 10 if things go badly in Norwich.

The Greens, of course, start from a low base and should gain seats from Labour this time around. Town Close, despite the by-election win, won’t be a guaranteed hold but Nelson should be pretty safe territory for them.

The Tories have most at risk, having most seats and an overall majority on the council – it would take just the loss of 4 seats for our overall majority to go. The LibDems will be looking no doubt at Long Stratton (Con maj 2%) and Diss (Con maj 4%) but given the massive Tory strides in South Norfolk, neither look vulnerable at the moment. They may rather fancy their chances in North Norfolk wheer the Tories currently lead by 4% in both Wells and Mundesley. On the outside, the LibDems may also choose to mount a strong challenge in Hellesdon (Con maj 8%) and Hoveton (Con maj 7%) but at the moment both look beyond their reach. Labour really have very few opportunities to make gains from the Tories – even a 0.7% Tory majority in the Broadland seat of Woodside looks a bit far fetched. Gorleston (Con maj 3%), Acle (Con maj 10%) and Old Catton (Con maj 7%) may all get Labour going but I don’t think they stand a chance in those wards either.

So who are the likely winners and losers from this? The Tories look pretty secure and have plenty of chances to gains seats from both Labour and the LibDems. Few Tory Councillors will even be challenged by Labour, although a coupel of seats may have strong LibDem campaigns. I suspect we’ll talking about the size of the Tory majority rather than if there will be one! The Labour Party pretty much face meltdown and their urban bases look set to fall; facing a Tory onslaught in GY, KL and Norwich (plus the Greens in Norwich too) they could be squeezed from all sides and could fall to third. The party with the biggest risk is the LibDems; on a good day they could hold seats and make a few gains, but they haven’t had many good days recently. With the Greens stealing their clothes in Norwich and the rampant Tories in the county they could as easily be fighting the Greens for third place on county and they could fighting Labour for second. At the moment, I wouldn’t want to be a LibDem strategist – over-stretch could cost them seats.

So that’s it as I see it at the moment; things could change (and do) in politics) but I have tried to be honest. I’ll let you guess the seats, but currently I think we’ll see 54 Conservatives, 14 LibDems, 11 Labour and 5 Greens – an overall majority of 24 for the Tories.

The Tories have this election to win, Labour have it to lose … but its the LibDems who should most fear the ballot box at the moment!

Dale’s Tour

Before we went on holiday I did an interview for Telegraph TV, interview by Iain Dale – you can see the result below. A lot of the interview dwelled on my age, my profession and the rise of the Conservatives in Norwich. Being in my 20s and teaching at a state school have never really occurred to me as marking me out from other candidates, but this has made me think again. CCHQ are doing a lot to diversify according to sex and ethnic origin; but why aren’t we doing more to bring in, for example, candidates with an experience of working in the public services such as teachers, doctors, nurses or ambulance drivers? Cameron says he wants a party that looks like modern Britain; so do I, but do we only judge ourselves by our sex, sexuality or colour of our skin? Diversity is – well – a bit more diverse than that.